GasAlpha
Dashboard Prices Basis Models West Trend PWCDD Population Renewables Gas Displacement X @GasAlphaHQ
Updated Aug 24, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC / Aug 24 at 04:08 PM CT
Aug 25 – Sep 03 · 4-Model Consensus · 00z
118.5 GWDDs
Gas-consumption-weighted degree days · 9 EIA census divisions
+27.1 vs 30-Year Normal (91.4)
+19.4 vs 5-Year Normal (99.1)
+44.5 vs Last Year (74.0)
HH Prompt (NYMEX)
$2.804
+0.071 (+2.6%)
GFS (10-day)
117.4
GEFS (10-Day)
118.8
ECMWF IFS (10-Day)
117.3
ECMWF AIFS (10-Day)
120.6
GFS vs IFS Spread
0.1 GWDDs
GFS (14-day)
162.3
08-23 00z → 08-24 00z (same cycle)
GFS▲ 3.8BULLISH
IFS▲ 1.8BULLISH
GEFS▲ 1.8BULLISH
AIFS▲ 1.9BULLISH
Daily GWDD Forecast — Shape of the 10-Day Window
Daily GWDD Forecast
10-Day GWDD Ranking vs Prior Years (00z Consensus + 12z Drift)
GWDD Historical Ranking
10-Day GWDD Run History (00z Consensus) — Pick a Past Date
Select any past date to see what the 10-day GWDD consensus was on that run date, ranked vs the same 10-day window in prior years.
Single-Day GWDD Forecast Ranking (00z) — Next 10 Days vs Prior Years
Select any date — past or future forecast — to see that specific day's GWDD ranked vs the same calendar date in prior years. Future dates use the 4-model 00z consensus forecast.
Model Trend — Run History
GWDD Model Trend
EIA Report Day
Latest Report: Thu Aug 20 Report (wk ending Aug 14) (projected 2026-08-20)
GasAlpha Projected
+13 BCF
Est. GWDD: 109
EIA Actual
+16 BCF
Inventory: 3,169 BCF
Miss
+3 BCF
BEARISH MISS
Natural Gas Storage — 2026 vs Prior 5 Years
5-Year Storage Comparison
Henry Hub Prices
Forward Curve, Price History & CFTC Positioning
12-month strip · seasonal overlay · prompt ranking vs prior years · managed money positioning
VIEW PRICE PAGE →
LNG Feedgas Demand
Est. Feedgas 18.0 BCF/day
LNG Exports 16.2 BCF/day (114 BCF/wk)
Utilization 92% of 19.5 BCF/d capacity
vs Last Year +2.7 BCF/d (+19.9%)
Source EIA Monthly (~101d lag) — 2026-05
LNG Exports Trend
POWER GENERATION FUEL MIX — 2026-08-03 TO 2026-08-09
Fuel Type % Share vs Prior Week
Natural Gas 43.9% Up +0.1%
Coal 17.0% Down -0.2%
Nuclear 16.0% Down -0.3%
Wind 8.4% Up +0.3%
Solar 8.2% Down -0.1%
Hydroelectric 4.6% Up +0.1%
Other 1.3% Up +0.1%
Source: EIA Hourly Electric Grid Monitor · US Lower 48 · Updated daily from EIA
Latest EIA Report — Week of August 14, 2026
Nationwide Inventory 3,169 BCF
Weekly Change +16 BCF
vs 5-Year Average +185 BCF (+6.2%)
vs Last Year -28 BCF (-0.9%)
Region Inventory vs 5-Yr Avg vs Last Year
East 708 BCF +34 BCF (+5.0%) +20 BCF (+2.9%)
Midwest 848 BCF +53 BCF (+6.7%) +38 BCF (+4.7%)
South Central 1,080 BCF +40 BCF (+3.8%) -63 BCF (-5.5%)
Mountain 237 BCF +25 BCF (+11.8%) -18 BCF (-7.1%)
Pacific 296 BCF +33 BCF (+12.5%) -6 BCF (-2.0%)

GasAlpha tracks Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) from four weather models — GFS, ECMWF IFS, GEFS, and AIFS — updated four times daily. GWDDs weight temperature by regional natural gas consumption across the 9 EIA census divisions, making them a more accurate signal for storage draws and price moves than standard HDDs. The dashboard shows the 4-model consensus, historical rankings vs prior years, EIA storage comparisons, and forward curve context for natural gas traders. GasAlpha also tracks western US natural gas basis differentials, including EP San Juan, TW San Juan, SoCal Gas, PG&E Citygate, and Waha hub forward curves and historical percentiles. Used by natural gas traders, energy analysts, and commodity market participants to assess weather-driven demand, EIA storage trajectory, and price risk across Henry Hub and western basis markets. GasAlpha provides daily GWDD rankings vs prior years, EIA natural gas storage report analysis, weekly CFTC managed money positioning for natural gas futures, Henry Hub 12-month forward curve, and seasonal price history from 2021 to present. Key metrics include GFS vs ECMWF model spread, 4-model GWDD consensus, natural gas storage deficit vs 5-year average, storage vs last year comparison, and Henry Hub prompt price percentile ranking vs prior years. Natural gas weather forecasts updated 4 times daily at 5z, 9z, 13z, and 21z UTC. Natural gas trading requires accurate weather forecasts, real-time GWDD data, EIA storage analysis, and forward curve context — GasAlpha provides all of these in a single natural gas trading dashboard updated throughout the trading day. Natural gas traders use GWDDs to forecast EIA weekly storage draws and injections, anticipate Henry Hub price moves, and assess weather risk in natural gas futures and options markets. GasAlpha tracks the GFS weather model, ECMWF IFS weather model, GEFS ensemble, and AIFS model — the same models used by professional natural gas forecasters — and combines them into a single 4-model consensus GWDD figure updated four times daily. Disclaimer: GasAlpha is a weather and market data tool for informational purposes only. Weather models are probabilistic forecasts and are not guaranteed to be accurate. Nothing on this dashboard constitutes financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity or financial instrument. All data should be independently verified before use in trading decisions.