GasAlpha — Natural Gas Intelligence

⚡ GasAlpha

Updated February 26, 2026 at 01:32 PM · Auto-refreshes every 30 min

Feb 27 – Mar 08 · 4-Model Consensus

198.1 GWDDs

Gas-consumption-weighted degree days · 9 EIA census divisions

-16.7 vs 30-Year Normal (219.2)

+46.2 vs 5-Year Normal (156.3)

+28.6 vs Last Year (173.9)

HH Prompt (NYMEX)

$2.824

-0.161 (-5.4%)

GFS (10-day)

205.2

GEFS (10-Day)

208.3

ECMWF IFS (10-Day)

199.8

ECMWF AIFS (10-Day)

179.0

GFS vs IFS Spread

5.3 GWDDs

GFS (14-day)

259.7

Overnight Run Changes · 12z → 00z

GFS▼ 13.6WARMER

IFS▼ 29.0WARMER

GEFS▼ 13.9WARMER

AIFS▼ 14.3WARMER

Storage Projection

EIA Report	Est. GWDD	Projected Change	Inventory	Confidence
Thu Feb 26 Report (wk ending Feb 20)	142.2	-55 BCF	2,015 BCF	High
Thu Mar 05 Report (wk ending Feb 27)	176.8	-130 BCF	1,885 BCF	High
Thu Mar 12 Report (wk ending Mar 06)	152.7	-78 BCF	1,807 BCF	Medium
Thu Mar 19 Report (wk ending Mar 13)	105.9	+24 BCF	1,831 BCF	Low
Thu Mar 26 Report (wk ending Mar 20)	99.0	+39 BCF	1,870 BCF	Low

Natural Gas Storage — 2026 vs Prior 5 Years

Henry Hub Natural Gas — 12-Month Forward Curve

CFTC Managed Money Positioning — Henry Hub

As of: 2026-02-17 Net Long: +248k contracts 4-Week Change: -206k vs 4wk ago

LNG Feedgas Demand

Est. Feedgas 19.4 BCF/day

LNG Exports 17.5 BCF/day (122 BCF/wk)

Utilization 100% of 19.5 BCF/d capacity

vs Last Year +4.2 BCF/d (+32.1%)

Source EIA Monthly (~103d lag) — 2025-11

10-Day GWDD Ranking vs Prior Years

Model Trend — Last 7 Days

Daily GWDD Forecast — Shape of the 10-Day Window

Latest EIA Report — Week of February 13, 2026

Nationwide Inventory 2,070 BCF

Weekly Change -144 BCF

vs 5-Year Average -67 BCF (-3.1%)

vs Last Year -31 BCF (-1.5%)

Region	Inventory	vs 5-Yr Avg	vs Last Year
East	388 BCF	-62 BCF (-13.8%)	-31 BCF (-7.4%)
Midwest	457 BCF	-81 BCF (-15.1%)	-37 BCF (-7.5%)
South Central	747 BCF	-84 BCF (-10.1%)	-52 BCF (-6.5%)
Mountain	207 BCF	+65 BCF (+45.8%)	+25 BCF (+13.7%)
Pacific	271 BCF	+94 BCF (+53.1%)	+63 BCF (+30.3%)